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Selection systems can sometimes be imperfect. This may occasionally be revealed when a great candidate or performer comes to a position through unusual circumstances or a “fluke”. Witness Brett Michaels’ (lead singer of “Poison”) VH1 reality show, “Rock of Love” (or Rock of Love 2 for purists). The show’s ultimate winner (and hence Brett’s ‘Rock of Love’) turned out to be Ambre Lake (on the left) who nudged out Daisy De La Hoya (on the right - and, yes, she is apparently related to the well known boxer, Oscar De La Hoya). Curiously, Ambre was almost cut from the show (i.e. not chosen by Brett to continue to ‘rock his world’) very early on - not even past the quarterfinals. She was only saved when one contestant chose not to remain on the show after being chosen by Brett. But, as the show wore on she gained momentum and ended up beating out all of the other contestants.

Now, all of this is to suggest that scenarios such as this may provide information on the imperfections of any selection system. We can think of other instances in which great performers were not early picks; or, alternatively, situations in which stand out performers only attained the position which enabled them to excel through a “fluke” situation. Instances that come to mind include athletes who were not high draft choices or college stars but went on to do great things in the pros (e.g. Johnny Unitas or Scottie Pippen). Similarly, we might think of actors who were not the first choice for roles, but ended up being praised for their performances or winning academy award. Of course, the flip side of this idea are situations in which “high draft picks” turn out to not do so well down the road. The worlds of athletics and entertainment are full of these stories.

Are there, perhaps, applications in political science or law? Great judges who were not obvious picks? Perhaps political leaders who were good performers, but attained office by fluke? Obviously, there may be somewhat of a subjective element in assessing who was a great performer; but this notwithstanding, it may be the case that studying these instances could reveal interesting things about our method of selection in a given field. Another application might be academia - are there cases in which eventual academic stars did not start out as “high draft picks”? And, if so, what can we learn from this, if anything?

The Economist is running a series this week on meth. Their Democracy in America blog points us to the Montana Meth Project and current anti-meth ads:

May 1, 2003:

Thank you all very much. Admiral Kelly, Captain Card, officers and sailors of the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln, my fellow Americans: Major combat operations in Iraq have ended. In the battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed. And now our coalition is engaged in securing and reconstructing that country.

Moreover,

In the images of falling statues, we have witnessed the arrival of a new era. For a hundred of years of war, culminating in the nuclear age, military technology was designed and deployed to inflict casualties on an ever-growing scale. In defeating Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan, Allied forces destroyed entire cities, while enemy leaders who started the conflict were safe until the final days. Military power was used to end a regime by breaking a nation.

Today, we have the greater power to free a nation by breaking a dangerous and aggressive regime. With new tactics and precision weapons, we can achieve military objectives without directing violence against civilians. No device of man can remove the tragedy from war; yet it is a great moral advance when the guilty have far more to fear from war than the innocent.

Annual or Total Iraqi Civilian Deaths Estimates: